Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

DPRK-China Border Crossings

Looking into North Korea from Dandong, China. Image: Commons/Prince Roy/2.0 CC

The number of border crossings a country has and changes to them allow analysts to better understand things like relations between countries and anticipated future trade and travel. For North Korea, observing what happens along their border with China (and even their tiny border with Russia) provides an out-sized insight into the workings and intentions of the regime.

The #AccessDPRK project identified 27 current and former border crossings (some could easily be reconnected). Several DPRK-China crossings have been expanded lately and those will be the focus of this post. An exploreable Google Map is located at the bottom of the article showing all the of the border crossings.

As always, click on an image to see a larger view.

Sinuiju Border Crossing


North Korea's key border crossing is the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge that connects the North Korean city of Sinuiju and the Chinese city of Dandong which lies across the Yalu River. It was constructed by the Japanese (under a different name) during World War II and carries roughly 45% of all trade between the two countries.


In 2011 construction started on the New Yalu River Bridge, 8.3 km downriver from the old bridge. The bridge was supposed to cost $350 million and have opened in 2014, however, the bridge is still not completed and ends in an empty field on the North Korean side. The bridge was supposed to link a special economic zone (SEZ), which would enable thousands more vehicles to cross each week, but the SEZ has yet to be realized.

In 2015 a new park area (that includes a water park) was constructed by the old bridge.
Additional plans (on top of multiple others going back many years) for Sinuiju have been placed forward by Kim Jong Un, which would see scores of new apartment blocks constructed, new factories, and recreational sites as well. Kim's stated goal is to turn the city into a "gateway city" and would have the plan completed in 5 years.




Hoeryong Border Crossing


Between 2008 and 2013, the border crossing here was expanded. After a major 2016 flood, the site was repaired and the city also experienced large-scale changes (in part to help facilitate the growth of the personality cult surrounding Kim Jong Suk, the grandmother of Kim Jong Un).


This side-by-side comparison shows the substantial enlargement of the administration and customs buildings on the North Korean side between 2008 and 2018. The crossing bridge itself hasn't changed, but now the country has greater control over what crosses (for combating smugglers) and makes more efficient use of the site.




Sambong Border Crossing


Twenty-seven kilometers up river from Hoeryong, is the small town of Sambong. The border crossing there has always been small, and it remains small, but there have been some expansion of facilities. This gives evidence to the importance the regime has placed on cracking down on smuggling, illegal crossings, and being able to catch all of the revenue the state is owed.



Namyang-Tumen Border Crossing

As with Hoeryong, Namyang has been experiencing major changes throughout the city. New housing, new schools, and an enlarged border crossing connecting Namyang to the much larger Chinese city of Tumen.


Roughly 57% of Tumen's population of 136,000 are of Korean descent. This makes the city a natural trading post, and so the growth of Namyang has become more important as trade with China has continued to heat up (despite sanctions) for many years. Control over the area is also important as most North Korea defections happen along areas with China where there is a strong ethnic Korean population.

The original road bridge was only wide enough to carry one-way traffic. The new bridge looks to be able to carry two lanes of two-way traffic, greatly enhancing commerce in the region.




Wonchong (Wonjong) Border Crossing


Located in the special economic zone of Rason (Rajin), the slow expansion of the Wonchong border crossing has been underway for over a decade, but the final push to completion has happened in the past three years.


The crossing expansion is part of a larger process of strengthening infrastructure ties from Rason to both China and Russia, including highways and port facilities. The new bridge allows for two lanes of two-way traffic, whereas the original crossing was only wide enough for vehicles to come through single file.

Under the Trump Administration, China has taken an intermittently harder line to enforcing UN sanctions, where it had been a notorious weak spot. Regardless, limited legal trade keeps growing and illicit trade (specifically among private and local actors) remains a much-needed lifeline for North Korea. Kim Jong Un's continued placement of importance on these border crossings shows his intentions to keep trade going and, perhaps, his hopes that sanctions will be lifted and so the country better have the infrastructure to deal with the volume when the floodgates open.


This Google Map shows all of the different active and former border crossings with China, Russia, and South Korea.





--Jacob Bogle, December 4, 2017
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Monday, September 3, 2018

The Marketization of North Korea


North Korea as proof that the drive toward freedom is universal, and that economic freedom creates personal freedom.

Introduction
Libertarians love all kinds of freedom, and we’re basically obsessed with economics. We understand that economic liberty means a person is free to do what they want with their property, their capital, and their ideas. Anytime a new Uber or Airbnb comes along, we hold them up as exemplars of what innovation – and the liberty to utilize it – can accomplish. We also, rightly, become incensed whenever government tries to limit competition and squash innovation for the benefit of one group over another.

When discussing freedom and free markets, socialism and communism are often used as examples of how state control ultimately leads to failure. But no nation in modern history is quite like North Korea. Not only is North Korea among the last Stalinist states, it will also become the longest-lived communist regime on Sept. 9, 2018 when it will celebrate its 70th anniversary (beating the Soviet Union by one year).

North Korea is unique in many ways and has surpassed basically every other totalitarian system in its breadth of control. This is why looking at what the people of North Korea themselves have done regarding market activity and the spontaneous drive for freedom makes North Korea, in my view, the best example of why liberty works and offers the most chances for happiness and well-being for all people.

As the saying goes, “it’s the economy, stupid!” Well, it really, really is. The ability to engage in economics is everything and affects every part of life.

Historical context
Korea had been a unified feudal kingdom for a thousand years prior to 1910, when Japan annexed Korea. Fast forward to the end of World War II, and the Allies have to figure out what to do with all of the places Japan had occupied.

America and the Soviet Union came up with a very hasty and poorly thought out plan in 1945 to divide Korea into two areas along the 38th Parallel. The North would be under Soviet control and the South would be under American control. The plan called for an election in the future so that Korea could be reunified – either along communist or democratic lines. That election didn’t happen.
Not wanting to wait any longer for reunification, North Korea invaded the South in 1950. The Korean War ensued, devastated the country, and killed millions of people. The war ended with an armistice in 1953. North Korea’s attempt to reunite the country under a single system once more has led to these 64 years of division. That division has been so great that even the Korean language has rapidly developed into two very distinct dialects.

It goes without saying, that since northern Korea was controlled by the Soviets, they developed a communist, top-down controlled economic system. Due to the period of Japanese occupation, northern Korea was actually the industrial center of the peninsula, while the southern half was the bread basket. And despite the utter devastation of Korea during the Korean War, North Korea (under Kim Il Sung and with Soviet help) managed to rapidly rebuild their country. North Korea managed to be economically, technologically, and militarily more advanced than the capitalist south all the way into the 1960s.

--- At this point, I feel it’s important to describe just what is meant by a top-down command economy in terms of North Korea. This doesn’t mean the leadership says, ‘we need to focus on infrastructure’ and a spending bill gets passed. It means every aspect of the economy is controlled by the Korean Workers Party, which is itself controlled by smaller organizations that all directly answer to Kim Jong Un. If a new factory needs to be built, or if there’s a shortage of farmers, even things like entertainment and the arts – it only happens once the government says it needs to happen. There is no room for the spontaneous order that makes capitalist systems so adaptive. ---

Division of the economy
The economy can roughly be divided into 3-4 sectors: the official economy, the parallel military economy, and a mix of grey and black markets. And you can further divide the economy into two eras, the pre-famine and post-famine eras.

The famine of 1994-98, to me, stands out as the breaking point. Prior to the famine, everyone received food rations via the Public Distribution System. Everybody received a certain amount of grains and fats on a regular basis (although the amounts and exact products varied according to how important the government thought you were). That system began to slowly erode through the 1970s and into the 1980s, and by the 1990s most people were receiving only a fraction of what they usually got. And instead of getting them once a month, three or four months might go by in between. People would forage for wild foods and engage in very limited market activity (which was generally illegal). But, widespread starvation wasn’t yet happening and the Distribution System was still partially functional.

North Korea had played the Soviet Union and China off each other for decades whenever the two big communist states would have sour relations. This meant North Korea received very cheap fuel, fertilizer, and food subsidies – and consequently lacked the incentive to improve their own agricultural and industrial sectors. It also meant they were incredibly dependent upon those subsidies. Once the Soviet Union collapsed and the Eastern Bloc moved toward integration with the open world economy, North Korea lost its most important patron. China still provided some “friendship aid”, but it wasn’t enough to make up the difference.

--- To help you understand the odd system in North Korea, I need to explain the official political ideology of the country. North Korea began distancing itself from being an official communist or Marxist-Leninist state in the 1970s. They replaced it with something called Juche, which basically means “self-reliance”. It means the country should be self-reliant and that each person is a “master of his own fate”. Of course that push to be self-reliant was happening when North Korea was entirely reliant on outside sources of aid to feed its people. And despite the positively sounding idea of each person being the maters of their own fate, they are only the masters of their fate within the guidance of the Korean Worker’s Party. Your sole purpose for existence extends to fulfilling the quote, unquote “revolution”. The only thoughts and behaviors allowed are those that follow the government. ---

Famine and collapse
At the end of the Cold War, the government began running out of food and fuel reserves. A series of floods then hit the region which compounded problems associated with the very poor soil management system in the North, which then led to the destruction of millions of acres of food and severely damaged their irrigation systems. Without adequate fertilizer and the fields being covered in mud, famine soon began to take hold; hitting the northern regions of the country the hardest.
The famine resulted in 1 million deaths, or almost 5% of the population. It also sank their economy. In order to survive, people started taking matters into their own hands.

This is where that fundamental drive to survive meets with economics and the reclamation of one’s own agency. Ironically, it turned Juche away from meaning total obedience to and reliance on the state into a growing reliance on one’s own efforts. As we will see, it’s also a testament to the power of women to change the lives of countless people.

Under the official system, every man not serving in the military had to work at one of countless state-controlled jobs. Be it at a factory, as a teacher, a farmer, in coal mines, etc. Even when the electricity failed, imports stopped, and the factories were neglected to the point of complete inoperability, all good socialist men reported to work to stand around all day under the ever-watchful eyes of the country’s surveillance system. Despite not producing anything in their factories, they were still paid the appropriate state wages – which amounted to just a few dollars a month.
This money was never meant to be the primary way people got their food, medicine, or other necessities, but with the Public Distribution System now totally collapsed and the currency tanked in value, a month’s wages may be all that a family received, and it might not be enough to purchase just a few days’ worth of food.

Black markets and Korean women
Despite the full equality granted to women by the North Korean constitution, North Korea has married communist philosophies with traditional Confucian ones. This means that while women can vote, join the military, and serve in public office, most are still stuck at home or on collective farms with no real ability to step outside the more traditional roles of women.
But with the famine and the failure of the state to provide, and with the men-folk away at work – not doing anything and not earning anything – it was up to wives and mothers to become the true breadwinners, lest their family starve.

Black-markets have existed in a limited sense throughout North Korean history and women have always been allowed to sell things like handicrafts. But selling anything like food, consumer goods, or raw materials was strictly forbidden and could easily result in the seller being sent to prison. What began as trading small amounts of wild herbs or what little food could be grown on the tiny plots of land your house sat on, gradually grew into large informal marketplaces where you could find lots of items.

People started leaving the unproductive collective farms in favor of tending illegal farms high up in the hills. Women not only traded with their neighbors but also began to branch out throughout their city and eventually around the country. Defections also rose significantly in the years following the famine along with the growth of these markets.

At one point, women made up over 70% of defections. One reason for this is because nearly all men have to serve long terms in the military, and so couldn't easily get away. And the other is that those men who aren’t in the military have to maintain a job. This means a woman missing for a day or two can be overlooked. By the time people start noticing, she’s long gone. Men on the other hand are kept under a much more watchful eye.

Travelling outside of your town requires government permission, and that meant bribes had to be paid. The result is that now you have people being able to travel to different parts of the country, and low-level officials turning a blind eye because they were getting more income from bribes than they were getting from the government that was supposed to supply for the needs of everyone.  Naturally, men started getting tired of seeing their wives out preform them, so they started paying bribes to the factory managers in order not to show up for “work” so they, too, could earn money. The array of goods floating around on the black market exploded. Workers would even dismantle their factories and machines to sell parts and as scrap metal (often to China), and the managers would over look this since they were making enough money to pay off their own supervisors, and so on.

The explosion of market activity can readily be seen using satellite imagery. In the early-to-mid 2000s, there were around 100 markets in North Korea, often on the outskirts of town or would pop up on occasion for a day or two before disappearing.  Today, there are over 400 markets. Market activity became so widespread that the government had to allow them. Instead of being shady places in back alleys, they’re now in the middle of town and housed in permanent facilities. Of course, the government charges fees, and there are still some rules, but on the whole, the market is where most people go to meet their daily needs. These markets can be relatively small, with just a few stalls, or extremely large, covering an area greater than 67,000 sq. ft. like some in Pyongyang.

This map shows nearly 400 identifiable markets in North Korea. Information is based on the 2017 release of the AccessDPRK Mapping Project.


The fact the government allows markets to exist in the open and that so many people take advantage of having them, shows the power of people. North Koreans who were determined not to die of neglect created a system based on capitalism – even if they didn’t really know the terms or know that what they were doing was capitalism. Faced with a choice between regime survival or the loss of all control, the government finally relented.

Grey markets
As with every country that experiences dramatic changes, be they the result of a famine, or hyperinflation, or any other examples in history, people changing their behaviors to maximize survival – even if it means ignoring government rules – extends to all levels of a society.
As I mentioned earlier, North Korea’s economy can be divided into a few sectors. Prior to the famine there were only two: the government economy and the military economy. Post famine, the growth of unsanctioned market activity had grown to be a serious competitor with the official economies of state. So much so, that the military and bureaucracies began taking part. After all, no amount of propaganda or loyalty to an abstract ideology will prevent people from seeking out a living when their lives are hanging in the balance. The benefits of engaging in marketplace activity became clear for all to see.

One main difference between black markets and grey markets is that a grey market is an otherwise unapproved economic activity that is done under the color of official sanction. At the same time the markets began to take off, the government began to demand that all the different agencies, departments, and military units come up with ways to pay and feed their own members, as well as earn hard currency for the regime. This was a tacit acknowledgment by the Kims that the government couldn’t fulfill its basic obligations and that they would allow limited trading activities so long as they didn’t cause an overall disruption or threaten the power of the Kim family and the Party. With that change in policy, public-private partnerships began to spring up everywhere.

One major area where this is true is in mining. A group of citizens who has access to unskilled labor will go to the appropriate local official in charge of mining. They will pay the official a large bribe and he will issue them the needed permits in return for future kickbacks. If they have enough money, he will even help them access necessary equipment. Government scientists, like geologists, are also highly sought after for the purpose of locating mining sites. The government agency can now count on receiving regular amounts of currency (which they were required to raise anyway) and the low-level people can earn far more money selling the mined material than they would engaging in more legitimate work – while also having the backing of those officials in the event security agencies start asking questions.

One of the few areas that is strictly off-limits to this, however, is gold mining. If you are caught illegally mining gold, you are accused of stealing from Kim Jong Un himself. Selling gold was one of the reasons Kim’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, got in trouble and led to his executed in 2013. But there are plenty of other valuable minerals to be mined, coal in particular. The number of small coal mines scattered across the country is immense.  And you can see their numbers rise via satellite as time goes on. This isn’t to say life is easy, especially for the average unskilled worker. Concepts like workplace safety are unheard-of and terrible accidents are common. But the otherwise ever-present specter of malnutrition and living a life wholly dependent on government has greatly diminished.

This mix of markets has created a burgeoning new middle class. While they would be considered poor to Western standards, this cohort has ready access to food, consumer goods, better housing, and can occasionally use their relative wealth to buy their way into the higher ranks of the government’s classification system. This system, called Songbun, stratifies people into three main categories with 50 or so smaller sub-divisions. Moving up levels means your life and your family’s lives will be better off and have greater opportunities, but it used to be incredibly difficult to do. But now, flush with cash, this middle class can change the destinies of their children for the better.

Public-private arrangements have been so successful that they have fueled an enormous construction boom. The skyline of Pyongyang would be unrecognizable to someone living even 15 years ago, and major cities around the country have benefited as well. Many in North Korea’s million-man army are used as laborers in these projects. While that isn’t anything new for North Korea, now specialist military carpenters and other skilled soldiers are paid a premium by the newly rich for their skills at constructing quality buildings and even creating home fixtures.


Marketization and culture
All of this more general economic activity has helped open the door to things that aren’t strictly a matter of finance or infrastructure. Personal freedoms, too, have begun to expand. Cell phones, now numbering over three million, not only facilitate trade, but have obviously had an impact on the personal lives of those who own them.

Prior to marketization and the ability for people to even have a cell phone, communication between average people was generally limited to speaking in person and writing letters. Few people even have landline phones as they require a substantial government approval process. Relationship opportunities were thus limited as well. Even today something we’d consider very trivial, like holding hands in public, is frowned upon. Dating, as we know it in the West, simply doesn’t exist and North Koreans remain painfully naïve when it comes to sex. Picking a wife or husband usually involved having the marriage arranged by family, or simply picking a mate based on their good songbun.

Now, however, armed with cell phones and disposable income, a small degree of liberality has set in. Young lovers can now find rooms to rent by the hour – usually in the home of a grandmother who is eager to earn a little extra money. She will often go for a walk or visit the local marketplace for a bit, while the young couple gets to know one another. Even more scandalous activities like prostitution, which was seen as part of the moral depravity of capitalist societies, is now exercised in public. There are even reports of police actually helping protect the women.

On less dramatic topics, the availability of consumer goods like electronics, and the willingness to break the law to watch pirated South Korean TV shows and American movies, has begun to create a population that expects to live a better life; one that includes leisure. Even though the national priority of leisure may seem to belong at the bottom of the list, considering malnutrition is still generally widespread and that thousands continue to languish behind the electrified fences of concentration camps, the government has taken to importing countless electronic items from China. North Korea is even producing their own cloned versions of iPads, Mac Computers, and the Windows Operating System. The government has also begun to build amusement parks and arcades.

Going back to the construction boom, a sort of semi-legitimate housing market has emerged as well. Private ownership of property isn’t possible in North Korea, but people are issued “residency certificates” that, for all practical purposes, are treated the same way a deed would be treated elsewhere. So, when someone makes enough money and they want to move, they simply sell the residency certificate and acquire a new one for their new home. This further weakens the state's control over the lives of the people.

In conclusion
Even in the most oppressive country on earth, where people literally don’t understand that there are different kinds of love (for true love is reserved only for the Kim family), or that using your talents and ingenuity to deal fairly with your fellow man is the basis of capitalism – despite these things, the human spirit endures. The desire for individuality and for forging your way is engrained in our very make-up, and no system of government or amount of repression can fully drive out the essence of liberty.

The determination of the people to live their own lives spurred on the marketization of the country. That, in turn, provided enough pressure to “encourage” the government to accept the markets, the slightly freer movement of people within the country, and provided the incentive needed to modernize and upgrade certain areas of the infrastructure (which had previously been kept limited and served as a means of defending against an invading army).

For those of us in the United States (and the rest of the world), it isn’t simply enough that we fight to be allowed to rent a room to a stranger or to be allowed to buy and sell online with a level of privacy. As North Korea shows, creating and forcing economic freedom from the bottom up forces governments to change and provides the environment needed for greater personal freedoms. However, the inverse is also true. When government seeks to limit either personal or economic freedom, it begins to impinge on the other liberties we have.

Things like privacy rights helps ensure a confident consumer; be they a consumer of Walmart or a consumer of government services. The protection of free speech enables concepts like Wikipedia to turn into a reality that can actually challenge authoritarian systems around the world. Defending free association and ending access barriers to technologies that were once inaccessible to the private sector, like the exploration of space, makes things like Google Earth and reusable space craft a reality. The benefits are endless.

If the people of North Korea can crack the heavy veil of 70 years of oppression and servitude, we can, and we must, do all that’s possible to prevent the erosion of the liberties we have enjoyed for over two centuries.

(This was originally presented to the Rutherford County Libertarian Party on Sept. 5, 2017.)

--Jacob Bogle, 9/3/2018
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Thursday, January 18, 2018

North Korea's Great Barrier

I first wrote about North Korea's caged population in 2013, where I showed the fences that surround the country. Since then, I have been able to map the full system of fences, guard posts, and gates. And since the general situation regarding population movement has changed since then as well, I want to revisit the topic and also provide you with the Google Earth file so you, too, can explore the miles of fences and blocked off beaches, as well as to provide added evidence of the horrific human rights situation that exists. If you're primarily interested in getting the KMZ file, click here.

Guards maintaining a section of border fence along the Yalu River. (Source

First, a quick refresher. Much of North Korea's coastline and land borders are fenced off. According to multiple defector and media reports, some portions of fence are electrified while others are simply guarded by police. Of course the southern border (aka, the Demilitarized Zone/DMZ) has been turned into, perhaps, the most impenetrable 820,210 feet (155 miles) of border in the world. Ever. Apart from the hundreds of thousands of troops stationed along the DMZ, it has over 1,000 observation towers and forward military posts. Finally, the border with China (and the small section with Russia) is protected by large reservoirs, rivers, and in many places, fencing as well.
The purpose of these barriers is to keep people inside the country. Construction was sped up during the famine as the regime tried to cope with the mass movements of people, risks of defectors stealing boats, and as the government struggled to maintain their control in all sectors of society.

All of this means North Korea's population really is caged. A more colorful description of the country would be as an open-air prison.

The following images show the extent of the national fence system. Click on images for an enlarged view.


I was able to map nearly 1,400 miles (1,399.36 to be exact) of fencing. There are lots of small coastline sections where the paths of fencing can still be seen, but the fence itself is gone - likely pillaged for scrap metal by locals, however, most of the gaps you can see (and all of the large ones) are due to either natural barriers or where direct access to the sea/border is blocked by an industrial site, military base, or other construction that itself serves as a barrier.

Many coastal towns and villages lack a fence and instead the coastal portion is lined with dockyards and factories which requires locals to go through any number of gates or checkpoints, if they're permitted through at all. I've tried to map as many gate houses as possible that provide direct access to the coast. Ones that simply allow access to a factory or other site adjacent to the sea are not marked.

This next image shows the reason for each of  the major gaps in the fence system.


This image shows 837 identifiable police border guard posts and 434 stand-alone watchtowers along the the DMZ.



Under Kim Jong Un, miles of new fencing have been erected as well as older fencing upgraded in certain areas. A large number of additional watchtowers have been added along the fence routes as well, particularly in the northern regions. However, border controls extend well beyond fences and watchtowers. Cell phone single jamming towers, cameras, and other surveillance equipment have been deployed along both borders, but efforts have particularly increased along the Chinese border (which is the route most defectors take).

A related issue is the increased border protections China has been implementing. As with North Korea, China has begun to build fences (of a far greater quality than the DPRK) along certain key border sections to stem the flow of defectors. They have also constructed signal jamming towers and increased police and military patrols. China's active attempts to catch defectors by checking train stations, setting up road blocks, and patrolling neighborhoods, occur not only in the immediate border region, but far into the interior in major cities like Jilin.

The following series of images clearly show the individual fence posts and come from different parts of North Korea. Additional images can also be found in the original 2013 post, A Caged Population.





As both Kim Jong Un and China have taken a much harder line regarding border security, there has been a real and measurable effect on the numbers of successful defections. In 2017 there were 1,127 defectors who made it to South Korea, which is a decline of 27% from 2016. That was the lowest figure since 2001. The total number of defectors peaked around 3,000 in 2009, meaning there has been a decline of ~62% overall.

Despite the barbed wire fences, guards with automatic weapons, the high risk of women being sold into sexual slavery, and the risks of repatriation and imprisonment (or execution), people still brave the cold waters of the Yalu River and the forests of northern China to find their way to a better life. Even soldiers posted along the DMZ, who tend to belong to elite families and are generally more well off than soldiers stationed elsewhere, accept getting shot at 40 times (or even kill other DPRK soldiers) to cross into South Korea.

Kim Jong Un may have been successful in curbing overall defections, but the drive to feed one's family and the desire to experience the freedoms of the outside world (that North Koreans are increasingly being exposed to) will continue to inspire and embolden people to take the risks and seek a better life.

To download the full KMZ file and explore the sites yourself, click here. (Must have Google Earth to access.)


--Jacob Bogle, 1/18/2018
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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Otto Warmbier, Dennis Rodman, and North Korea

The following is based on an interview I had with Dan Mandis on his Nashville, TN radio show (99.7 FM) on June 20, 2017. It is not a direct transcript but covers everything discussed and adds some additional information that we weren't able to get to due time restraints. The actual interview is available on iTunes for free (my segment begins at minute 18:44).


Dan Mandis Show 99.7 WWTN, Nashville
6-20-17
12:35-12:55 CST

Why was Otto Warmbier there and why does anybody still go to North Korea?
Otto was travelling in China and the decision to visit North Korea seems to have been fairly impulsive after he saw an advertisement from a tour group. North Korea holds a certain allure for many and several hundred Americans and a few thousand Westerners visit each year, along with thousands of Chinese and smaller numbers from countries around the world.

As for why, North Korea is unique and can offer a lot in the way of throw-back Soviet-style culture that’s mixed with ancient Korean history. And for the most part, they leave people alone. There’s an argument to be made that people shouldn’t visit because you’re giving money to an evil regime, but there’s also a counter argument that defends travel because you expose North Koreans to different people and ideas – which can help weaken the leadership over time. And really the only people who can resolve the dispute are the people who decide for themselves to either visit or not.

Who are remaining prisoners?
There are three Americans still being held by North Korea: Kim Sang-duk, Kim Hak-song, and Kim Dong Chul. All three are Korean-American Christians and are charged with crimes relating to missionary work, something North Korea takes very seriously. Of the 16 Americans detain by the North since 1999, 5 were connected to Christian groups. Nine were Korean-Americans.

What happened to Otto?
The official North Korean story is that he had botulism poisoning, which you can get from inappropriately packaged food – something that’s plausible given the state of affairs over there. Of course, Otto’s American doctors say there was no evidence of that. What really happen may never be known; he could have easily been hurt during an accident, beating, or during a torture session. We know from previous detainees that North Korea is not afraid to abuse American prisoners. And while his death is very sad, given how long he was in a comma and the damage to his brain, his death wasn’t surprising.

North Korea tries to hide anything that hints at the terrible conditions in their prisons or the failure of their medical system, so it’s reasonable to think they held him for so long in the hopes he would recover so they could coverup the whole thing. But the last thing North Korea wanted was to have a dead American in their custody, and I think his inability to come out of the coma played a role in them releasing him.

Describe what hard labor is really like in North Korea?
Honestly, it depends. But looking at the average, hard labor usually involves working in agriculture or in mining operations. The lack of equipment means using brut human strength and simple things like Ox carts and hand tools to farm the land – very much Medieval technology. Mining is done in deplorable conditions with little to no safety considerations. Accidents and mine collapses are common.

Prisoners are forced to work up to 15 hours a day, every day, and often receive less than 400 grams of food rations (usually corn with salt) – that’s a maximum of 1,500 calories a day. That means prisoners have to find mice, bugs, and even weeds to supplement their diets. When you add nonexistent sanitation, under those conditions the body quickly starts falling apart.   

What is our policy?
Currently the only policy the US has regarding travel to North Korea, is that Americans are discouraged from going. We don’t have diplomatic relations with them so direct travel is not possible. Every American that goes there must do so via a third-party nation, usually China. Even if we were to outright ban travel there, unless China helped us enforce that ban, Americans could still find a way if they were intent on it. The US State Department doesn’t (or can’t) even keep track of who goes to North Korea.

We don’t have any explicit policy on dealing with the North either when it comes detainees – and Otto was the first American prisoner to die since basically the Korean War. All we can do consider stronger sanctions – which haven’t stopped the slow progress of their military or prevented their economy from grinding forward.

What has Dennis Rodman accomplished this time around?
What role Rodman played in Otto’s release, if any, isn’t known. Prisoner releases have happened whenever a high-profile politician or former official payed a visit, because it confers a level of legitimacy on the regime, or when the North extracted some kind of food aid or other concession. They basically use prisoners as pawns. Having said that. Rodman’s visit could have just been coincidental, as he does consider Kim Jong-un a friend of sorts and since the US had been working toward Otto’s release since day one.

What About Young Pioneer Tours?
People are always encouraged to travel to North Korea using one of several official tour companies. Visiting on your own invites disaster. The problem with the company Otto used, Young Pioneer Tours, is that they appear to have used deceptive marketing to make the risks associated with going to North Korea seem less than they really were for Americans, while also promoting the allure of a “risky adventure” by saying their company somehow held sway in North Korea and if you used them you were less likely to be harassed or arrested.

Since these companies are often based in China, China’s obligation in this would be to tighten regulations associated with such companies. As I said earlier, even if the US were to enact a travel ban, it would be up to China to be the main enforcer.


In the end, the real point is to never take travelling to North Korea lightly and do a whole lot of research before you go. The overall risk is relatively low (it’s less than 1%), but even bending the rules there can get you in deep trouble and without adequate research, you may inadvertently break a law you didn’t realize even would be a law. An example of that is the disposal of newspapers that have the image of Kim Jong-un on them. You are not allowed to just throw it away, you can’t even fold the paper to where the picture is folded in half. 


--Jacob Bogle, 6/20/2017

Friday, April 14, 2017

Wonchong Border Crossing Nears Completion

The Wonchong North Korea-China border crossing is one of two crossings in Rason (Rajin) and one of 13 official crossing points either by road or rail with China.

In a long and slow process that has been occurring since at least 2009, the border crossing's snail-paced expansion seems to be nearing completion. The enlargement of this border crossing comes during a period in which North Korea has begun work on a new crossing and on upgrading two others. The bridge at the Manpo crossing was completed in 2012. Additionally, despite spending $350 million, construction of the New Yalu River Bridge, a large suspension bridge between Dandong, China and Sinuiju, North Korea has stalled.

The near completion (or full completion, as the most recent satellite image is from 2016) of the border crossing comes at a time of heightened tensions with China. China is North Korea's main trading partner, accounting for 60-70% of all imports and exports. Coal, being the single largest North Korean commodity has been used by the international community as one of the main economic pressure points to get North Korea to stop their nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. Since China is their main trading partner, China has held the responsibility for the bulk of sanctions regarding trade. Giving Wonchong added relevance, the crossing is near the city of Undok which is where the coal-rich 'June 13 Coal Field' is located. I would discuss the complicated history of DPRK-China trade relations (particularly with regards to coal), but you can find ample information on that in these two articles: The Myth of China's Coal Imports and China's 'Ban' on North Korean Coal Isn't the Tough Stance it Seems.

I wanted to bring up the trade issue because the continued work on border crossings tell a story of anticipated continued and expanded trade. While certain sectors like coal may see fluctuations, trade in consumer goods for North Korea's newly-minted middle class has meant a flood of Chinese products entering the North Korean marketplace. Medicinal herbs, trade in metals, foodstuffs, and other products have also risen sharply in the past decade. The long-term implications of all of this are likely to result in the weakening of the Monolithic Ideological and socialist regime. For now, construction continues.

One last bit of interesting information, the Wonchong crossing was the site of Christian Missionary Kenneth Bae's arrest in 2012. In April 2013 Bae was sentenced to 15-years imprisonment. After failing health (hard labor and starvation conditions tends to break people down) and negotiations, Bae, along with another American prisoner Matthew Miller, was released on Nov. 8, 2014.

Click images for larger view.

Wonchong Border Crossing as seen in 2010.

Crossing on Sept. 15, 2013 showing some new construction. 

The new bridge under construction can be seen by Sept. 6, 2015 as well as additional construction.

Work on the bridge deck is underway as of March 19, 2016. General construction continues as well.



--Jacob Bogle, April 14, 2017

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Saturday, March 18, 2017

Terrorism and the Future of North Korea at the United Nations

Image source: Outside the Beltway

After Kim Jong-nam’s assassination with VX nerve agent by emissaries of North Korea in Malaysia on February 13, 2017, calls went up in the United States to have the country re-listed as a state sponsor of terror, and calls from South Korea to have their northern cousins suspended from the United Nations were also registered. But how likely is either scenario?

North Korea was placed on the US terror list in 1988, following the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 in 1987 which killed 115 people. The country was removed from the list twenty years later in 2008 by president George W. Bush after appearing to satisfy the demands of a nuclear agreement based on the Six Party Talks. And while North Korea has since violated many nuclear terms and agreements, their last "official" act of international terrorism remains the 1987 bombing. That is, until the death of Kim Jong-nam.

What makes Kim Jong-nam’s death more than a simple case of a country assassinating one of its own citizens, is the fact that he was killed in a foreign country and that he was ostensibly under the protection of China – which is also North Korea’s main patron. Jong-nam had been in a state of quasi-exile ever since trying to visit Tokyo Disneyland with a fake Dominican Republic passport in 2001. His main residence since that time had been Macau. Despite no longer holding any official titles, it is alleged that he had a role in maintaining the Kim family slush fund (operated via Office 39), which holds an estimated $5 billion. Kim Jong-un’s motivation for having his half-brother killed are unknown, but it could be for any number of reasons – from coup rumors, to being displeased with public statements Kim Jong-nam had made, to even mismanagement of funds (if he was indeed involved).

Since there is no single supreme definition the United States works with, it could be difficult pin the label "terrorism" onto the incident. The US has several definitions of what constitutes terrorism and what might constitute a state sponsoring terrorism, and these legal standards vary across agencies and have changed over time. However, the use of VX, the deadliest nerve agent known, changes the game. For some background, Section 3 of the Export Administration Act of 1979 says:

"It is the policy of the United States to use export controls to encourage other countries to take immediate steps to prevent the use of their territories or resources to aid, encourage, or give sanctuary to those persons involved in directing, supporting, or participating in acts of international terrorism."

This is where the use of VX becomes very important. VX is classified as a weapon of mass destruction and is banned under the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993 (to which North Korea is not party to). The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) defines “terrorist activity” at Section 212(a)(3)(B)(iii):

(IV) An assassination.
(V) The use of any—
                                                                            (a) biological agent, chemical agent, or nuclear                                                                                                               weapon or device,

Additionally, since definitions of "international terrorism" obviously include the activities being carried in other countries, the involvement of a multinational force of conspirators to accomplish the killing (the two women accused of wiping Jong-nam’s face with the nerve agent are from Malaysia and Vietnam), lends weight to the argument that North Korea should be re-listed. However, one possible impediment to this is the fact that many of the standards require that terrorism have a political motive. While there are many theories, there's no smoking gun pointing to a direct political motive to kill Kim Jong-nam. That said, when you consider North Korea's extensive arms trade, including to countries like Syria and Iran (both of which are currently on the list), the case to re-list can be enhanced.

Complicating matters, though, is America’s need to bring North Korea to heel when it comes to the nuclear question, which is America’s key concern and colors every dealing with the country. Re-listing North Korea would result in even greater economic pressures on the state. While this may sound positive, the long-term trend is that whenever North Korea gets backed into a corner, they either strike out in retaliation or proceed with their plans clandestinely. Kim Jong-un has shown no sign of slowing down the nuclear program he inherited and having his regime once again labeled a state sponsor of terrorism is likely to have the opposite wanted effect. Kim Jong-il paid close attention to the destinies of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. Gaddafi disarmed Libya of WMDs and was overthrown with the help of the West regardless. Likewise, Saddam Hussein, despite lacking verifiable WMDs, made up part of the Axis of Evil and had his country invaded. No doubt Kim Jong-un has learned the lesson of despots as his father did – disarmament alone is no guarantee of safety.

While the likelihood of North Korea ending back up as a state sponsor of terror is at least 50/50, if history is a guide, the real world long-term results aren't likely to be the desired results.


That takes us to the possibility of having North Korea suspended from the United Nations.
Such an act has never occurred and would require the UN Security Council to recommend the action, from where it would then be approved or disapproved by the General Assembly. As mentioned, North Korea’s last confirmed act of international terrorism was in 1987. Prior to that, North Korea engaged in a number of terrorist activities and supported terrorist groups like the Japanese Red Army. The North’s activities were carried out all around the Asia-Pacific region.

In 1968 North Korean commandos infiltrated South Korea and tried to assassinate then president Park Chung-hee after they raided the Blue House (the South Korean equivalent of the White House). Unsuccessful and undaunted, a second assassination attempt was carried out in 1983. The 1983 attack occurred in Rangoon, Burma when North Korean agents bombed a wreath laying ceremony at which the South Korean president, Chun Doo-hwan, was in attendance. The attack resulted in 67 casualties, including the death of four top-ranking South Korean officials and 17 others.

Apart from the Korean Air Flight 858 bombing in 1987, North Korea had previously hijacked Korean Air Lines YS-11 in 1969. The hijacking ended without any casualties, though, North Korea refused to release eleven of the crew and passengers. To this day their ultimate fates are unknown.
None of these events led to North Korea being suspended from the United Nations. Nor did the killing of two United States Army officers with axes along the DMZ in 1976, or the naval clashes near Yeonpyong Island in 1999 and 2002, or the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan in 2010, or the other 200 plus violations of the 1953 Armistice Agreement by North Korea.


The fact is, so long as China (which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council) remains an ally of North Korea, despite whatever troubles may exist between them, China will likely not allow North Korea to be suspended. China, and to some extent Russia, have opposed many would be actions against North Korea by the international community. North Korea continues to serve as a useful buffer state between China and a liberal South Korea (with their entrenched military alliance with the United States) - with their new THAAD missile defense system. North Korea has also shown itself more than capable of developing ballistic and nuclear technology domestically, and cutting them off from all international associations and possible avenues of rapprochement would only push their backs against the wall even further. As mentioned earlier, each time North Korea has been increasingly isolated they have lashed out, but, in the past, there also remained ways for them to reach out and seek de-escalation (which did occur to varying degrees).

Unilateral actions by other countries can have an effect, although such actions by countries long opposed to the North Korean regime are having diminishing returns. Malaysia has taken steps to show their displeasure with the assassination like expelling North Korea’s ambassador Kang Chol, and rescinding the ability of North Korean citizens to travel to Malaysia without a visa. However, China remains the key figure in any attempt at punishing North Korea or affecting change outside of reigniting war.

Recently, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said during his visit to China that, every option was on the table, including military options, regarding North Korea. China of course tried to play both sides of the fence and suggested we be "cool headed". An all out war is no real option, but the fact remains that the last 20+ years of "cool headed" diplomacy hasn't stopped their nuclear or ballistic missile programs, or led to a more open DPRK. Despite many efforts, their economy remains in tatters and millions still go hungry. China's insistence that we calm down while offering to help in any way possible to relieve tensions on the Korean Peninsula, belies the fact that China has a long history of saying one thing while doing another. China has allowed North Korea to exploit loopholes in UN resolutions to acquire luxury goods and foreign currency (which often ends up in the hands of the military), and even China's latest unilateral action against North Korea - the banning of North Korean coal imports - must be taken with a grain of salt.

Without doubt, North Korea has been squeezed. But we have watched a slow-motion multi-decade catastrophe unfold before our very eyes while we have tried to placate North Korea through the misguided notion that all they want is food and they'll give up their bombs for it. Not only does North Korea have nuclear weapons (and it's time we acknowledge they're a nuclear weapons state instead of pretending they're not), they're on the verge of having a credible first strike capability. Additionally, not only do they have a vast arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, we now know they're not afraid to use them. We are edging ever closer to a point of absolutely no return. Until China is really on-board, any international actions against North Korea will be blunted.

--Jacob Bogle, 3/18/17
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Additional Reading
Arsenal of Terror: North Korea, State Sponsor of Terrorism, by Joshua Stanton

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Manpo-Changchuan Hydroelectric Dam Construction Continues

Some 8 miles (13 km) north of Manpo, North Korea, along the Yalu River border with China, a new hydroelectric dam has slowly been growing. It's named for the village of Changchuan, although the North Korean name given is Mun'ak.

Satellite imagery suggests that construction on the dam began sometime around 2013 and has been proceeding from the North Korean side to China; the nearest Chinese city being Ji'an.

You can see the beginning stages of construction in this image from January 5, 2014.


I haven't been able to find much additional information about it. NKEconomyWatch posted that North Korea and China were planning to build two additional hydroelectric dams on the Yalu. One would be built from the Chinese side and the other would come from North Korea.

The North Korean dam, located by the small village of Changchuan, is estimated to cost $78 million and is expected to produce 154 million kWh annually (enough to power 14,000-20,000 homes). The initial agreements to build the dams came in 2004 and 2008, with a proposed completion date of 2013. Obviously, they've fallen behind.

This image from October 21, 2014 shows the work advancing and shows the hydroelectric generating station under construction.


The original width of the Yalu River at this point was around 850 feet (259 m). The latest imagery available, May 24, 2015, shows the dam has pinched the river into a 100 foot (30 m) wide neck. It also shows a cofferdam large enough to facilitate the construction of 4-5 additional "ribs", and that the hydroelectric station's construction is also continuing at pace. The hydroelectric facility has rooms to hold 4 generators.


Here is a picture of the "worker's village". It includes housing, manufacturing buildings, and equipment sheds.

A mile (0.6 km) north of the construction site, they have carved out a quarry on the river bank to use for the cofferdam and, possibly, the concrete used in building the dam. The quarry covers approx. 330,000 sq feet (30,600 sq meters).

It also looks like the dam was originally going to be built 0.8 miles to the north but was moved to its current location for some reason.


The nearest completed dam is the Yunfeng Dam, which is 12 miles (40 km) north and became fully operational in 1967. It has a 400 MW generating capacity. Once this dam is completed it will be the fifth hydroelectric dam on the Yalu.

UPDATE - Aug. 31, 2018
After missing the initial completion deadline, the dam is slated to be completed in 2019. The construction of this and other Yalu River dams is expected to bring in millions of dollars' worth of energy trade with China, something not banned by UN sanctions.

Construction progress as of May 5, 2018.


--Jacob Bogle, 1/17/2016
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Monday, April 15, 2013

News on the Nuclear Situation

According to an unclassified section of a report released by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (Dynamic Threat Assessment 8099: North Korea Nuclear Weapons Program):

   "D.I.A. assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles; however the reliability will be low.” 

This definitely raises the stakes of the game. China has helped to funnel billions into Pyongyang (£4 billion yearly in official trade and £7.6 billion via black market activities) as well as provided them with military technology. And now, despite taking some actions against North Korea in response to UN sanctions, it would seem that the link between the two countries is anything but severed.

Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang


Based on war preparations by Kim Jong-il, North Korea has stockpiled six months worth of fuel to support any war effort they may undertake. And while they do not expect help from China should they invade or attack another country, they do expect China would come to their aid should the US or South Korea attack the north. That being said, the technology needed to hit a mainland US city with a nuclear warhead is very advanced. The north hasn't been keen on acquiring modern missile technology from either Russia or China but rather seems intent on developing their own technology as required under the Juche (self reliance) policy. The problem isn't that they lack the ability to miniaturize a bomb, it's the ability to mount it (with confidence)  and have the guidance systems needed to reliably hit something that they lack.  

Tonghae (Musudan-ri) Missile Test Center


Which leads me back to some statements I made in my previous post on the issue. Even though North Korea has thousands of tons of mineable uranium ore, they only have enough processed material to make 3-12 weapons (depending on who you ask). And while they have begun to restart the Yongbyon reactor, it could take a year or more for them to process enough fuel rods (they have 12,000 of them) to extract fissionable materials of the quality needed for a bomb. So what is a more likely threat - the threat of launching a missile at us and chance wasting the valuable materials should it fall into the sea, or the risk of them sending a miniaturized bomb in a shipping container?

Yongbyon reactor facility


North Korea runs one of the most successful smuggling programs around. They ship weapons parts to Iran, Syria, Burma  and Libya, plus drugs and counterfeit US currency to places like China and throughout Africa. Not to mention human trafficking. All of this to me says that if North Korea wanted to attack the US mainland with a bomb, they would most likely use unconventional means.


Additional Reading:
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues, Congressional Research Service (PDF)

--Jacob Bogle, 4/15/2013
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Thursday, February 28, 2013

A Caged Population

UPDATE (8/19/15): Reporting from DailyNK says that North Korea's new border fence with China has been completed in Ryanggang Province. I finished mapping the border fences and I can attest that in the past the fence was indeed incomplete. There were a lot of gaps and areas where it had been cut or otherwise destroyed. Based on available imagery, there are still a lot of areas in the north that lack fencing.

Map of all known border and coastal fences. Click for larger view.
As I said in my previous post, movement in and around North Korea is heavily controlled. Not only are there road blocks, check points, travel document requirements and so forth, there is also a network of fences which ring the whole nation.

These fences were built in earnest during the period of the 1990s famine and range from a simple fence to complex mixes of wire fences, electric fences, sand berms and concrete walls, especially along the Chinese-Korean Border and DMZ. However, much of the northern border fences construction was done on the Chinese side over fears of instability within the DPRK. Portions of the fence are constantly being maintained and upgraded while others are in fairly bad shape.

The North Korean government claims the fences have been built for national defense purposes and to protect ocean wildlife from poaching. Many outside observers say that the real motivation was to keep people from fleeing and to control the fish supply so that the elites and military received food resources first.

This large-scale image shows a green band along the beach. The fences (like the DMZ) have acted like unintentional wildlife preserves since new construction and even wandering around most beaches has been prevented. The first non-border fences were constructed around coastal cities to keep people from sailing off. I will focus this post on the coastal fences since they help highlight the human-rights abuses within the country.


This next image is a close-up of a fence.


Here we can see a fence at a better angle to give you a sense of its height as well as the guardhouse, most of which are located in cities and villages.


This image is of a small village located on a tiny peninsula on North Korea's northeastern coast. You can see the village is almost completely surrounded.


Finally, we have a fence with a small guard-post. Guard-posts are located at varying intervals depending on terrain and the regional population. The fence cuts across a river bed and it appears that section is either not finished or perhaps has been washed away from flooding.



(For updated information and access to the complete fence system via Google Earth, please read North Korea's Great Barrier, Jan. 2018.)

Additional Reading:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/31/north-korea-culture-war_n_2389810.html

--Jacob Bogle, 2/28/2013
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