Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Sino-DPRK Smuggling Sites Suggest Kim's Approval

North Korean authorities attempted to use the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to seal off the border in an effort to stop defections and the flow of illicit goods and information into and out of the country.

Newly smuggled passenger vehicles in Hyesan, North Korea awaiting further distribution. Photo by Asia Press (Rimjin-Gang), September 2025.

 
And, the new border fence is indeed the most complete and strongest undertaking to control the border in North Korea's history, and at first it did seem to be quite effective at accomplishing those goals. For instance, the number of defectors reaching South Korea fell from 1,047 in 2019 to just 63 in 2021. However, it's important to remember that the border fence wasn't the sole reason for this decline. Heightened internal security within North Korea and anti-pandemic measures in China and other third countries used by defectors to transit will have all played a role.

Nonetheless, North Korea's northern border and its coastlines were secured by over 3,800 kilometers of electrified fencing and thousands of additional guard posts. Kim Jong Un has also attempted (multiple times) to crackdown on corruption and bribery within the border guard forces and by local police to further strengthen security. 

However, these efforts appear to be on pause in Ryanggang Province.

An AccessDPRK review of the 400-km-long border between North Korea's Ryanggang Province and China shows that as early as August 2023, the first possible makeshift fording site (river crossing) across the Yalu River was constructed at a sandbar in Hyesan (41.411114° 128.186804°) to enable cross border smuggling activities. 

AccessDPRK has since located a total of 43 of these irregular crossing points, with 37 of them being capable of allowing vehicles to drive between countries at shallow points in the river, and a further six sites along deeper parts of the river are used for river barges to carry goods back and forth.

Map of over 40 makeshift crossing points across the Yalu River. Black locations are vehicle crossings, yellow locations within the box are barge crossings. Click for larger view.


Most of the fording sites were constructed in 2025, and Asia Press and NK News have published in depth reports on the activity. However, I want to add to their work and provide some additional context and detail.

First to recap their previous reporting, these fording sites are constructed at shallow river sites by dumping rock and debris into the river to create stable platforms, essentially weirs, for trucks and other vehicles to cross. And then they reach small ramps of rock enabling the vehicles to drive out of the river and onto islands or onto the riverbank, depending on the area's geography.

Fording site at Phungyang (41.431189° 127.885265°). Click for larger view.

From there, the smuggled items are brought through North Korea's border fence and are then stored at numerous sites along the border until being sent to their final destinations in towns within the country's interior. 

At locations further downriver in Kimhyongjik County, where the Yalu begins to deepen, a series of barge docks were constructed to enable additional trade. The shallow-draft barges are relatively small, only ~20 meters in length, but are large enough to carry vehicles (though unlikely) as well as consumer goods, equipment, and other material.

River barge crossing site (41.519380° 127.221360°).

I want to take a moment to highlight the point that when the smuggled goods are brought into North Korea, they aren't coming through unprotected parts of the border or through demolishing the border fence. At least twenty of the crossing points are at already-established gates within the fence that border guards use for their patrols, strongly implicating the complicity of local police and government officials.

Smuggling activity at border fence gate (41.393617° 128.051521°), detailed view. Click for larger image.

Indeed, so many locations sprung up in 2025, it suggests that they are being allowed by more than the local border guards and are likely operating with the tacit government approval of both North Korea and China as a means of state approved smuggling. ("Smuggling" is being used and not "trade" as the import of these goods violate United Nations sanctions and China's and North Korea's legal obligations under international law.)

These crossings are found within a 177-km-long stretch of border in Ryanggang Province between the village of Kumchang-ri in Kimhyongjik County in the west and the city of Hyesan to the east, and no similar crossings have yet been located along the land border with China that lies east of Mt. Paektu.


From these crossing points, the vehicles, construction equipment, and goods are taken to temporary storage sites before being sent further inland. Most of these inland sites have not been positively identified and are likely change frequently, but one location south of Hyesan has been identified.

This intermediate smuggling step was caught on Google Earth in the town of Samsu on July 30, 2025 and was subsequently written about in an exclusive AccessDPRK Patreon post on October 12.

Image of vehicles being stored in Samsu, July 30, 2025.

Samsu is 18 km south of Hyesan and doesn't sit on the main north-south highway nor is it connected to the country's rail network. Regardless, on July 30, 2025, 164 personal vehicles (sedans) were captured parked in five primary locations around town. Additionally, 49 trucks (~12 meters in length) are also seen in and around town, with several seen in the process of crossing a small river that bisects the town. 

These large-scale smuggling activities do not appear to happen on a daily or even weekly basis, but even if they are infrequent, the number of border crossings and the number of vehicles seen at Samsu could suggest that over the course of a year, there is a capacity for a thousand or more vehicles to be smuggled into North Korea, as well as thousands of tons of other goods annually. 

More investigation is needed to locate the other logistical waypoints, such as Samsu, to further build our understanding of how North Korea moves illicit goods within the country - from border towns all the way down to Pyongyang and beyond. 

2021 photo of Kim Jong Un. KCNA.

Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea has taken some of the most extraordinary steps in its history to block defections, control trade, and limit corruption along the border. However, these crossings point to the contradictions within North Korea government and society. 

At first glance, the sheer number of these illicit crossings would speak to how ingrained corruption is among North Korea's border guards and local officials. At the same time, it would be utterly implausible to assume that over 40 border crossings, some just a few hundred meters apart, using the formal network of fences within the border fence, and having goods sent to numerous purpose-built structures along the border could happen on an entirely illegal and spontaneous level or occur unseen by nearly the whole border population in the region.

North Korea's economy largely functions because of smuggling, not in spite of it, and the luxury goods that keep Pyongyang's elites supporting the Kim regime are almost exclusively acquired by the state through illicit means. 

It may be easy to assume this is illegal activity in the eyes of a state with a centrally planned economy, but it is quite likely that this wave of activity seen in 2025 is happening with Kim's blessing, as a means to import massive quantities of goods as quickly as possible - before pressure from Chinese officials, the international community, and internal security risks (information sharing etc.) move North Korea to clamp back down and reestablish tight control.

Indeed, these crossings represent a major threat in the form of defections, as they could provide defectors who have the right connections and the right amount of money, dozens of new escape routes - far more than existed just two years ago. 

But regardless of the risks, four years of near total trade restrictions has created a buildup of demand for everything from toothpaste to construction equipment. And the government's recent policy change to permit private vehicle ownership means that cars, in particular, are in high demand and offer an opportunity for the government to earn additional revenue through sales, and permitting and licensing fees.

And so, while this border activity may turn out to be temporary (something highly probable given Kim's waffling economic policies and defection concerns), the photographic and satellite evidence gathered over the last eight months represents some of the strongest visual evidence of large-scale sanctions evasion for overland routes. 

I would like to thank my current Patreon supporters who help make AccessDPRK possible: Donald Pearce, David M., Dylan D, Joe Bishop-Henchman, Joel Parish, John Pike, Jonathan J., NO ONE, Kbechs87, Raymond Ha, Russ Johnson, Squadfan, Timberwolf, and Yong H. 

--Jacob Bogle, February 9, 2026

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Market Growth Post-COVID 2020-2025

Upwards of 90% of North Koreans supplement their official incomes through market activity, and in the years leading up to Pyongyang's closure of North Korea's border in response to COVID-19, the growth of market space around the country had been at a fever pitch. But what about in the years since 2020?

Un-dated Naenara image of a marketplace in Pyongyang.

Black and grey market activity has been a key driver of the North Korean economy for decades, and they are often the only way citizens can meet their daily needs or earn money for necessary expenses.

As such, market activity has long been used as a proxy for the state of the country's economy as official state data is often lacking in detail and credibility; and the health of marketplaces reflect the ups and downs of DPRK trade with China, and the central government's ever-changing attitudes toward market activity. 

AccessDPRK has monitored the annual expansion of market infrastructure and vendor space, and has used commercial satellite imagery to detect changes to the overall available market area dating back to 2011. 

Prior to the pandemic, the overall trend under Kim Jong Un had been one of intensifying market area growth, and in 2019, a record 23,260 square meters of additional vendor space was built nationwide. (This is only new construction and doesn't take into account markets that may have declined for various reasons. However, prior to COVID, market infrastructure rarely dropped in any particular county.)

However, in the following year, as COVID policies took hold, the amount of gross new space (vendor stalls and open-air spaces) constructed nationwide dropped 68% to just 7,450 square meters in 2020 and then to a mere 630 square meters of identifiable growth in 2021.

2011-2021 chart showing the total amount of new market area (gross) added annually. 


For this post-pandemic 2020-2025 survey, I have focused on the amount of covered vendor stall space (buildings) only, and not enlargements of open-air spaces that don't host vendor stalls on a permanent basis. Stall space more accurately reflects the health of each individual market as the building or demolition of vendor structures strongly indicates the level of local demand. 

Locations of the 138 market towns reviewed for this report.

At the time of writing, 69 market towns are covered by Google Earth imagery from the year 2025. A further 69 towns have imagery from 2024. These locations represent 222 total markets from every part of the country, equating to 48% of the 477 known permanent markets in North Korea.

Reviewing these towns shows that market growth remains limited compared to pre-COVID, despite improvements in trade with China and Russia; but growth is nonetheless occurring. 

In total, combined for the years 2020-2025, net market growth for the 222 markets reviewed showed only a gain of 9,905 square meters worth of vendor stalls, averaging out to 1,981 sq. m./year - the lowest average annual rate since 2011 and an annual growth rate decline of 91% compared to the high point of 2019.

However, most of that modest growth can be found due to only four markets: Sariwon Market #2 (38.510007° 125.766451°), Sariwon Market #4 (38.508158° 125.742289°), and the Pyongyang-Hadang Markets #2 and #3 (39.054520° 125.721985°) totaled 5,140 square meters of growth, accounting for over 50% of the total net growth in North Korea's market space for the time. 

This concentrated distribution of market growth may reflect difficulties in improving goods availability through the whole country, but that can't be determined solely through satellite imagery.

Sariwon Market #4 was constructed entirely in mid-2020.


Of the 222 markets reviewed, twenty-six markets showed an increase in vendor space and fifteen markets declined in space, with four of those markets either fully demolished or had their vendor buildings removed. The other 181 markets showed no meaningful change in their physical structures over the five years, which would not unusual for any give five-year period.

The four markets that closed are: Haksan (39.430997° 126.021379°), Nampo-Waudo (38.723984° 125.348461°), Tokryong* Market #2 (40.219230° 124.694337°), and Yomjon (37.766101° 126.127783°).

Haksan Market comparison for 2020 and 2024. Haksan originally had 400 sq. m. of vendor stalls.

Nampo-Wadu Market comparison for 2022 and 2024. The walled space remains but the vendor stalls have been removed. The market held 650 sq. m. of stalls.

Tokryong Market #2 comparison for 2020 and 2022. The market had 350 sq. m. of stalls.

Yomjon Market comparison for 2022 and 2025. Yomjon's stall space fluctuated but had a total area of 1,270 sq. m.

This dramatic slump in growth also matches reports of declines in on-the-ground activity within the markets and the struggling economic recovery in North Korea post-pandemic. 

Following the country's lockdown, agricultural imports and food stores plummeted, and daily goods like toothpaste and cooking oil were in short supply, even in Pyongyang's modern supermarkets. In street markets, the availability of any commodities that had been sourced overseas quickly ran out. That drop in supply of imported items didn't return to normal for some product classes until 2024.

Visible declines in market crowd sizes have also been reported, and as Professor Lim Eul Chul of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University told Radio Free Asia in 2022, "mobility must be guaranteed for a market to a certain extent, but since mobility is not guaranteed, the market inevitably shrinks. Second, raw materials, fuel, and various subsidiary materials must be smoothly supplied from China;" with new national policies to bring market forces back under state control, they aim "for marketization that is managed and led by the state. As a result, the market is bound to contract." (emphasis added)

Those declines, over time, would eventually necessitate the physical removal of market structures as supplies persistently waned.

Dedicated market days and hours vary across municipalities and can be arbitrarily changed by authorities, so it's difficult to get a complete picture of human activity within the markets using sources like Google Earth, however, following roughly three years of very few visible examples of crowds at markets, large crowds were visible at fairly widespread locations again in February 2024. 

And so, although the markets have clearly struggled in the last five years, there are finally signs pointing to a return to normal in many parts of the country.

Crowds visible at the Ryonggang Market on February 29, 2024

The conclusion is that for the 2020-2025 period, the market's resiliency and the ingenuity of North Korean citizens helped to keep market activities alive in the face of a global pandemic and the worst government crackdowns on economic activity in a generation.

Market growth slowed considerably, but despite the reduction in some market spaces and the elimination of others, net growth continued to occur; albeit at a limited pace compared to earlier years.

With that in mind, for some rural areas, recovery may not be fully possible in the short-term, as logistics chains and supply and demand pressures shift within provinces and nationally. So while the national economy continues to recover, the local effects may be felt for years to come.


*Note: The Tokryong market does not have recent imagery in Google Earth, but the market closed in 2021 and was reviewed in Planet for a series of articles I wrote with Radio Free Asia, and its closure status has been verified in 2024 and 2025.


I would like to thank my current Patreon supporters who help make AccessDPRK possible: Donald Pearce, David M., Dylan D, Joe Bishop-Henchman, Joel Parish, John Pike, Jonathan J., NO ONE, Kbechs87, Raymond Ha, Russ Johnson, Squadfan, Timberwolf, and Yong H. 

--Jacob Bogle, January 7, 2026