North Korea to the United States - You First

Any North Korea watcher worth their salt knows that North Korea and Western countries have a problem with definitions. What denuclearization means to one is quite different from what it means to the other. Despite having decades of experience with North Korea, successive US administrations appear to know that this difference exists but have refused to adjust their actions accordingly. Well, North Korea just made it impossible to ignore the reality of the situation.

On December 20, 2018, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a statement saying, “The United States must now recognize the accurate meaning of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and especially, must study geography, when we talk about the Korean Peninsula, it includes the territory of our republic and also the entire region of (South Korea) where the United States has placed its invasive force, including nuclear weapons. When we talk about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, it means the removal of all sources of nuclear threat, not only from the South and North but also from areas neighboring the Korean Peninsula…”

This provides an all too clear meaning to the otherwise vague terms agreed to during the June Trump-Kim summit, and to the many other general agreements signed over the years. 

When America talks about denuclearization, it means no nuclear or long-range ballistic technology for the North. It means no peaceful nuclear power capacity that could be converted to weapons use. It means North Korea pledging to never engage in preemptive attacks. From the perspective of the North (as reinforced by this latest announcement), denuclearization means the removal of the United States’ nuclear umbrella over not only South Korea, but Japan as well. It means an agreement by the United States to never launch a preemptive attack (nuclear or otherwise) against the DPRK. It means the United States drawing down its forces in South Korea and the removal of nuclear-capable bombers from the country (there are no nuclear weapons stationed in South Korea). And it means that the path toward denuclearization must be taken across the whole peninsula, jointly, and accompanied by sanctions relief as Pyongyang is loathe to take any action without some kind of reciprocal action by either (or both) South Korea and the US.

North Korea has shown that it prefers joint action over the years, but that it will quickly revert to bellicose language and even take military actions if they don’t feel like the other side is keeping its end of the deal. Continuing inter-Korean cooperation is evidence of this. At the same time, their language has shifted regarding the United States as the US has, in the northern mind, only given token concessions while North Korea has refrained from any nuclear or ballistic testing since November 2017.

2017 Pukguksong-2 ICBM test launch. (KCNA)

I feel it’s important to quickly discuss why nuclear weapons are so important to the DPRK and why the regime seems quite content to let their people starve while they spend billions of dollars trying to acquire these weapons. Korea as a whole has always been a “shrimp squeezed between two whales”. It has long had to stave off being the play thing of Japan and China, and since WWII, it has had to contend with Soviet/Russian and American influences. Kim Il Sung began North Korea’s nuclear ambitions practically from day one of liberation from Japan. It was spurred on after the devastation of the Korean War and has slowly become incorporated into the national psyche.

Nuclear weapons are seen as the final guarantor of the regime’s survival, as countries that gave up their nuclear ambitions have a history of falling to the United States (namely Gaddafi’s Libya and Saddam’s Iraq). Generations of North Koreans have grown up with government propaganda praising the importance of nuclear weapons, spurring them to take on greater hardships to enable their development. And the leadership has spent generations promising to deliver them and promising that achieving such a goal will also guarantee national economic strength and put and end to hardship. For the regime to relent and simply turn over everything after they have finally constructed dozens of functional warheads as well developed needed missile delivery systems would be seen as a betrayal of the people.

Kim Jong Un must be seen to get security assurances and to get the United States to step back before taking any concrete steps toward true disarmament. Otherwise, he risks losing everything and a stable rule is the only thing that matters to the country’s elite. That’s why it should come as no surprise to anyone who has observed the country for more than five minutes, that North Korea will continue the operation of hidden missile bases, continue the operation of nuclear facilities, and continue to develop and expand their conventional military forces until such time as real, highly detailed and specific agreements are signed.

Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump at the June 2017 Singapore Summit. (Evan Vuccia/AP)

Getting full, verified, and permanent denuclearization up front is basically like trying to eat an elephant in one bite. As the moral implies, though, you can only accomplish a major goal if you take lots of small bites. The United States has been preoccupied with getting North Korea to comply entirely and immediately while ignoring the reality of the matter. Nuclear weapons to North Korea aren’t like some random weapons system the US may discard because it’s too costly or the technology fails. Nuclear weapons are intimately tied to the country’s identity and their belief that it ensures their survival. The decades-long game we have been playing has resulted in failure. They will never give up their weapons overnight and it’s time we came to understand this.

Achieving the goal of denuclearization is one that may take years of consistent work and countless small steps. Trust building measures are a must. Understanding that North Korea will likely deflect, obfuscate, and outright lie in the process must also be expected. However, it’s these small steps that will lead to ultimate success. We can’t underestimate the value of trust building measures or small steps. To quote the Bible, “despise not small beginnings” (Zechariah 4:10). Recent examples of these small beginnings, taken by both Koreas, is evidence that they can deescalate, defer further testing and cross-border attacks, and accomplish the dismantling of a portion of the DMZ. In other words, from North Korea’s view, it’s up to the United States to make bold concessions for every bold concession they demand from North Korea, otherwise, we're all just wasting our time.

As I said, reaching the full goal may take years. In fact, it may take an entire generation. New ways of thinking and having the willingness to act outside of the tried and failed current box of tricks will take time to permeate leadership and bureaucracies. The question is will we create an environment that gives us the time needed, or will we continue shouting at each other until someone makes a very big, very bad mistake?

--Jacob Bogle, 12/21/2018
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DPRK-China Border Crossings

Looking into North Korea from Dandong, China. Image: Commons/Prince Roy/2.0 CC

The number of border crossings a country has and changes to them allow analysts to better understand things like relations between countries and anticipated future trade and travel. For North Korea, observing what happens along their border with China (and even their tiny border with Russia) provides an out-sized insight into the workings and intentions of the regime.

The #AccessDPRK project identified 27 current and former border crossings (some could easily be reconnected). Several DPRK-China crossings have been expanded lately and those will be the focus of this post. An exploreable Google Map is located at the bottom of the article showing all the of the border crossings.

As always, click on an image to see a larger view.

Sinuiju Border Crossing

North Korea's key border crossing is the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge that connects the North Korean city of Sinuiju and the Chinese city of Dandong which lies across the Yalu River. It was constructed by the Japanese (under a different name) during World War II and carries roughly 45% of all trade between the two countries.

In 2011 construction started on the New Yalu River Bridge, 8.3 km downriver from the old bridge. The bridge was supposed to cost $350 million and have opened in 2014, however, the bridge is still not completed and ends in an empty field on the North Korean side. The bridge was supposed to link a special economic zone (SEZ), which would enable thousands more vehicles to cross each week, but the SEZ has yet to be realized.

In 2015 a new park area (that includes a water park) was constructed by the old bridge.
Additional plans (on top of multiple others going back many years) for Sinuiju have been placed forward by Kim Jong Un, which would see scores of new apartment blocks constructed, new factories, and recreational sites as well. Kim's stated goal is to turn the city into a "gateway city" and would have the plan completed in 5 years.

Hoeryong Border Crossing

Between 2008 and 2013, the border crossing here was expanded. After a major 2016 flood, the site was repaired and the city also experienced large-scale changes (in part to help facilitate the growth of the personality cult surrounding Kim Jong Suk, the grandmother of Kim Jong Un).

This side-by-side comparison shows the substantial enlargement of the administration and customs buildings on the North Korean side between 2008 and 2018. The crossing bridge itself hasn't changed, but now the country has greater control over what crosses (for combating smugglers) and makes more efficient use of the site.

Sambong Border Crossing

Twenty-seven kilometers up river from Hoeryong, is the small town of Sambong. The border crossing there has always been small, and it remains small, but there have been some expansion of facilities. This gives evidence to the importance the regime has placed on cracking down on smuggling, illegal crossings, and being able to catch all of the revenue the state is owed.

Namyang-Tumen Border Crossing

As with Hoeryong, Namyang has been experiencing major changes throughout the city. New housing, new schools, and an enlarged border crossing connecting Namyang to the much larger Chinese city of Tumen.

Roughly 57% of Tumen's population of 136,000 are of Korean descent. This makes the city a natural trading post, and so the growth of Namyang has become more important as trade with China has continued to heat up (despite sanctions) for many years. Control over the area is also important as most North Korea defections happen along areas with China where there is a strong ethnic Korean population.

The original road bridge was only wide enough to carry one-way traffic. The new bridge looks to be able to carry two lanes of two-way traffic, greatly enhancing commerce in the region.

Wonchong (Wonjong) Border Crossing

Located in the special economic zone of Rason (Rajin), the slow expansion of the Wonchong border crossing has been underway for over a decade, but the final push to completion has happened in the past three years.

The crossing expansion is part of a larger process of strengthening infrastructure ties from Rason to both China and Russia, including highways and port facilities. The new bridge allows for two lanes of two-way traffic, whereas the original crossing was only wide enough for vehicles to come through single file.

Under the Trump Administration, China has taken an intermittently harder line to enforcing UN sanctions, where it had been a notorious weak spot. Regardless, limited legal trade keeps growing and illicit trade (specifically among private and local actors) remains a much-needed lifeline for North Korea. Kim Jong Un's continued placement of importance on these border crossings shows his intentions to keep trade going and, perhaps, his hopes that sanctions will be lifted and so the country better have the infrastructure to deal with the volume when the floodgates open.


This Google Map shows all of the different active and former border crossings with China, Russia, and South Korea.





--Jacob Bogle, December 4, 2017
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Prison Camp 22 Today

Camp 22 (Kwanliso 22) was a major prison camp within North Korea's extensive prison system. Located in the far north of the country in North Hamgyong Province, it covered some 87 square miles and had the capacity to hold over 20,000 prisoners. In 2012, reporting from the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and others suggested that the camp had been closed down and its thousands of prisoners either murdered (including by starvation) or transferred to other prison camps.

While the outline of the security fence system remains, the fences and guard towers have all been demolished. As well, during the 2012-2013 time frame, regular domestic buildings were constructed including town administrative buildings, Juche study halls, and monuments. These are items that are largely missing from prison camps but exist in practically every town and village in the country. This strongly suggests that the site has been turned over to civilian use, possibly as a non-penal exile site (as the main roads in and out of the former camp still retain access control points).


The largest changes to the former camp facilities, besides the removal of fencing and guard posts, seems to be the demolition of two buildings within the camp's administrative center, which includes the torture facility.

Camp administrative center in 2010 with buildings of interest.

Camp administrative center with unidentified building and the torture center demolished as of 2018.

Changes to the villages within the camp attest to its current non-penal nature and shows that something did in fact change in the area's administration after 2012 when all of these changes began to appear.

Raksaeng-ri, a village within the camp as seen in 2011.

Raksaeng-ri after camp closure. Common civilian buildings have been constructed.

The village of Kulsan-ri in 2011.

Kulsan with a new school and other buildings as of 2018.

Agricultural and mining activities appear to have continued with little interruption since the closure as crops can be seen in various stages of growth and harvest over the years, and trains still visit the mining depot. However, the entrance points to the area are still controlled by check points. All of this leads me to believe that the camp is now being used for either one of two things.

The first is that is could now be a regular agricultural and mining area, however, the government still hasn't fully sanitized the former camp of bodies and other evidence that this was a terrible place and so needs greater control over who gets in and out.
The second is that this is a non-penal location used to send exiles and other non-criminal undesirables. The nearby county of Onsong (which also used to have a prison camp) and the northern reaches of the country in general have long been regions to which the government sent exiles. Pyongyang is regularly purged of "lesser" citizens and there are reports of "abnormal" people (like dwarfs) being rounded up and sent to places out of sight of the capital and visitors. 

There is a third option but it is unlikely, and that is that the camp is still a prison but is being administered in a radically new way.

The main entrance check point as seen in 2016.

It is an unequivocal positive that there is one less prison in North Korea, however the regime seems to show no real interest in doing away with political prison camps or mass internment in general. Prisons like Chongjin, Kaechon, and Chongori have all been expanded in the last decade and repression continues unabated.


--Jacob Bogle 11/1/18
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The Vatican's Abbey in North Korea

Few realize that Korea was once the most Christian region in Asia, particularly Pyongyang. In fact, Kim Il Sung's own father was a Protestant deacon. After the division of the Korean peninsula, Kim Il Sung began a mass purge of Christians and suppressed all forms of religion, including Buddhism and traditional folk beliefs. Several hundred former religions structures survived these purges and the Korean War, but they played an ever-diminishing role in the lives of the people. Today, only token "churches" and "temples" exist in the country, and a few Buddhist sites that are scattered around are left open as tourist spots.

By Kaliwallace, DeviantArt.

Just outside of the urban core of the coastal city of Wonsan exists a curious remnant of the former religious life of the northern Korean people. Although monks, nuns, and their associated religious buildings existed in the area since the 1920s, the Territorial Abbey of Tokwon wasn't established until 1940. It only managed to service the surrounding counties until 1949, as that's when things began to drastically change. In May 1949, North Korean secret police arrested the Abbey's 80 or so Catholic personnel (which included foreigners as well) and over the next several years 35 of them had died from execution, hard labor, and starvation. Among those who died was the Benedictine Abbot-Bishop Boniface Sauer, who died on February 1, 1950. In 1952 the remaining German monks and sisters were deported.

Wonsan University of Agriculture. Google Earth, Nov. 3, 2017.

The Abbey building itself suffered bombing damage during the Korean War, but it was later converted to secular use. It now sits on the campus of the Wonsan University of Agriculture. 

Some of the survivors established a new monastery in South Korea, and that monastery is the technical administrator of Tokwon - however no one is allowed to visit Tokwon and no religious services are held there. Despite the events of history and the reality on the ground, Tokwon is still one of the few official territorial abbeys of the Catholic Church, and the only one in Asia.

Tokwon Abbey building. Google Earth, Nov. 3, 2017.

Abbot-Bishop Boniface Sauer and the other Tokwon martyrs are now among over 100 North Korean Catholics who are under consideration for beatification. One of the major accomplishments of the monks and nuns of Tokwon was the translation of the New Testament epistles and the Book of Revelation into Korean.

Abbot-Bishop Boniface Sauer (bottom row, center) and the brothers of Tokwon. Image date unknown.

Christianity (all denominations) went from one of the largest faiths in North Korea, with over 1.7 million adherents prior to the Korean War, to as few as 11,000 mostly older followers. The only official Christian organization in the country is the Korean Christian Federation, which claims some 10,000 members. While the North Korean Constitution guarantees freedom of religion, it also bans any activities that may detract from the power of the state, organizations that could be tools of imperialism, and other related prohibitions. Under these vague terms, the state can suppress any religion it desires. Indeed, Christians in North Korea are considered the most oppressed religious group in the world and countless thousands have been murdered by the regime in concentration camps.

The newly completed Abbey. Original date and source unknown.

When Korea was divided, access to countless human stories and historical sites vanished from the face of the earth. We can use satellite images, defector testimony, and the ever-shrinking pool of living memory to help reconstruct the past, but the true story of the millions who have survived, endured, or died over the course of the past 70 years will only ever be known when North Korea is finally opened to the world.

--Jacob Bogle, 10/5/2018

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The Democratic Peoples' Republic of Leisure Expands

Kim Jong Un may love his nuclear weapons and hasn't shown any intention of closing down North Korea's concentration camp system, but he has been a "builder leader". The country's generation of market activity has meant a new middle class, new expectations, and the money to accomplish them (at least superficially).

Kim has overseen the construction of new ski resorts, expanded airports, and new water parks. He has infused Pyongyang's zoo and museums with additional resources, constructed countless apartments, and now has embarked on the construction of further parks for the amusement of his people. I suppose the thinking goes, if they're distracted by games, they won't call for his head.

Starting in 2017, major cities have had small "town square" parks (as I call them) being constructed.
I can only speculate as to the exact nature of these new parks as I haven't seen any pictures of them from the ground, but they all follow the same basic design and have enough space for gaming stalls and a few small shops. What makes me call them town squares is their resemblance to known urban warfare training centers in the country, which aim to create realistic looking urban areas to train soldiers for fighting in cities. Using Google Earth, I have been able to locate 15 32 56 of these parks.

As more imagery has been updated, it looks like at least every county seat will have one of these parks built. Interestingly, I haven't located any in the Pyongyang metropolitan area.

Here is a completed park in Toksong, South Hamgyong Province. (Click on images for a larger view)

As of August 2018, the park in Kimchaek, North Hamgyong is still under construction.

In Unryul, South Hwanghae, the "town" is part of a larger park area.

All of the parks I have located can be explored here.


Such parks aren't without precedent. Folk villages, such as in Sariwon, are common in both North and South Korea. And individual buildings (like restaurants) or even whole sectors of a town that are constructed in traditional styles can be found in multiple places. Perhaps these more modern looking buildings are in tribute to the Kim Jong Un architectural 'revolution'.


--Jacob Bogle, 9/6/2018 (minor updates on 11/24/18 and 1/24/19)
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